{"id":2968,"date":"2025-05-30T18:00:16","date_gmt":"2025-05-30T10:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wunen.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/30\/%e5%9b%bd%e9%99%85%e5%89%8d%e6%b2%bf%e7%9f%a5%e8%af%86%e7%b3%bb%e5%88%97%e4%ba%94%ef%bc%9a%e6%97%b6%e9%97%b4%e5%ba%8f%e5%88%97%e5%bb%ba%e6%a8%a1%e6%96%b9%e6%b3%95%e5%9c%a8%e5%a4%b4%e9%83%a8%e6%92%9e\/"},"modified":"2025-05-30T18:00:16","modified_gmt":"2025-05-30T10:00:16","slug":"%e5%9b%bd%e9%99%85%e5%89%8d%e6%b2%bf%e7%9f%a5%e8%af%86%e7%b3%bb%e5%88%97%e4%ba%94%ef%bc%9a%e6%97%b6%e9%97%b4%e5%ba%8f%e5%88%97%e5%bb%ba%e6%a8%a1%e6%96%b9%e6%b3%95%e5%9c%a8%e5%a4%b4%e9%83%a8%e6%92%9e","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.wunen.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/30\/%e5%9b%bd%e9%99%85%e5%89%8d%e6%b2%bf%e7%9f%a5%e8%af%86%e7%b3%bb%e5%88%97%e4%ba%94%ef%bc%9a%e6%97%b6%e9%97%b4%e5%ba%8f%e5%88%97%e5%bb%ba%e6%a8%a1%e6%96%b9%e6%b3%95%e5%9c%a8%e5%a4%b4%e9%83%a8%e6%92%9e\/","title":{"rendered":"\u56fd\u9645\u524d\u6cbf\u77e5\u8bc6\u7cfb\u5217\u4e94\uff1a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u6d4b\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u964d\u566a\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"article_content clearfix\" id=\"article_content\">\n <link href=\"https:\/\/csdnimg.cn\/release\/blogv2\/dist\/mdeditor\/css\/editerView\/kdoc_html_views-1a98987dfd.css\" rel=\"stylesheet\"\/>\n <link href=\"https:\/\/csdnimg.cn\/release\/blogv2\/dist\/mdeditor\/css\/editerView\/ck_htmledit_views-704d5b9767.css\" rel=\"stylesheet\"\/>\n<div class=\"htmledit_views atelier-sulphurpool-light\" id=\"content_views\">\n<p id=\"main-toc\" name=\"tableOfContents\">\n   <strong><br \/>\n    \u76ee\u5f55<br \/>\n   <\/strong>\n  <\/p>\n<p id=\"%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E5%89%8D%E6%B2%BF%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86%E7%B3%BB%E5%88%97%E4%BA%94%EF%BC%9A%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E5%BA%8F%E5%88%97%E5%BB%BA%E6%A8%A1%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95%E5%9C%A8%E5%A4%B4%E9%83%A8%E6%92%9E%E5%87%BB%E8%BF%90%E5%8A%A8%E5%AD%A6%E6%B5%8B%E9%87%8F%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E9%99%8D%E5%99%AA%E4%B8%AD%E7%9A%84%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8-toc\" name=\"tableOfContents\" style=\"margin-left:0px\">\n   <a href=\"#%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E5%89%8D%E6%B2%BF%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86%E7%B3%BB%E5%88%97%E4%BA%94%EF%BC%9A%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E5%BA%8F%E5%88%97%E5%BB%BA%E6%A8%A1%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95%E5%9C%A8%E5%A4%B4%E9%83%A8%E6%92%9E%E5%87%BB%E8%BF%90%E5%8A%A8%E5%AD%A6%E6%B5%8B%E9%87%8F%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E9%99%8D%E5%99%AA%E4%B8%AD%E7%9A%84%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8\" rel=\"nofollow\"><br \/>\n    \u56fd\u9645\u524d\u6cbf\u77e5\u8bc6\u7cfb\u5217\u4e94\uff1a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u6d4b\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u964d\u566a\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528<br \/>\n   <\/a>\n  <\/p>\n<p id=\"%E4%B8%80%E3%80%81%E5%BC%95%E8%A8%80-toc\" name=\"tableOfContents\" style=\"margin-left:40px\">\n   <a href=\"#%E4%B8%80%E3%80%81%E5%BC%95%E8%A8%80\" rel=\"nofollow\"><br \/>\n    \u4e00\u3001\u5f15\u8a00<br \/>\n   <\/a>\n  <\/p>\n<p id=\"%E4%BA%8C%E3%80%81%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E5%BA%8F%E5%88%97%E5%BB%BA%E6%A8%A1%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95-toc\" name=\"tableOfContents\" style=\"margin-left:40px\">\n   <a href=\"#%E4%BA%8C%E3%80%81%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E5%BA%8F%E5%88%97%E5%BB%BA%E6%A8%A1%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95\" rel=\"nofollow\"><br \/>\n    \u4e8c\u3001\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5<br \/>\n   <\/a>\n  <\/p>\n<p id=\"%EF%BC%88%E4%B8%80%EF%BC%89ARIMA%20%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B-toc\" name=\"tableOfContents\" style=\"margin-left:80px\">\n   <a href=\"#%EF%BC%88%E4%B8%80%EF%BC%89ARIMA%20%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B\" rel=\"nofollow\"><br \/>\n    \uff08\u4e00\uff09ARIMA \u6a21\u578b<br \/>\n   <\/a>\n  <\/p>\n<p id=\"%EF%BC%88%E4%BA%8C%EF%BC%89%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B0%E5%B9%B3%E6%BB%91%E6%B3%95-toc\" name=\"tableOfContents\" style=\"margin-left:80px\">\n   <a href=\"#%EF%BC%88%E4%BA%8C%EF%BC%89%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B0%E5%B9%B3%E6%BB%91%E6%B3%95\" rel=\"nofollow\"><br \/>\n    \uff08\u4e8c\uff09\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5<br \/>\n   <\/a>\n  <\/p>\n<p id=\"%EF%BC%88%E4%B8%89%EF%BC%89%E5%B0%8F%E6%B3%A2%E5%8F%98%E6%8D%A2-toc\" name=\"tableOfContents\" style=\"margin-left:80px\">\n   <a href=\"#%EF%BC%88%E4%B8%89%EF%BC%89%E5%B0%8F%E6%B3%A2%E5%8F%98%E6%8D%A2\" rel=\"nofollow\"><br \/>\n    \uff08\u4e09\uff09\u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362<br \/>\n   <\/a>\n  <\/p>\n<p id=\"%E4%B8%89%E3%80%81%E5%AE%9E%E9%99%85%E6%A1%88%E4%BE%8B%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90-toc\" name=\"tableOfContents\" style=\"margin-left:40px\">\n   <a href=\"#%E4%B8%89%E3%80%81%E5%AE%9E%E9%99%85%E6%A1%88%E4%BE%8B%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90\" rel=\"nofollow\"><br \/>\n    \u4e09\u3001\u5b9e\u9645\u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790<br \/>\n   <\/a>\n  <\/p>\n<p id=\"%EF%BC%88%E4%B8%80%EF%BC%89%E5%AE%9E%E9%99%85%E6%A1%88%E4%BE%8B%E4%B8%80%EF%BC%9A%E6%B1%BD%E8%BD%A6%E7%A2%B0%E6%92%9E%E8%AF%95%E9%AA%8C%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E9%99%8D%E5%99%AA-toc\" name=\"tableOfContents\" style=\"margin-left:80px\">\n   <a href=\"#%EF%BC%88%E4%B8%80%EF%BC%89%E5%AE%9E%E9%99%85%E6%A1%88%E4%BE%8B%E4%B8%80%EF%BC%9A%E6%B1%BD%E8%BD%A6%E7%A2%B0%E6%92%9E%E8%AF%95%E9%AA%8C%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E9%99%8D%E5%99%AA\" rel=\"nofollow\"><br \/>\n    \uff08\u4e00\uff09\u5b9e\u9645\u6848\u4f8b\u4e00\uff1a\u6c7d\u8f66\u78b0\u649e\u8bd5\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u964d\u566a<br \/>\n   <\/a>\n  <\/p>\n<p id=\"%EF%BC%88%E4%BA%8C%EF%BC%89%E5%AE%9E%E9%99%85%E6%A1%88%E4%BE%8B%E4%BA%8C%EF%BC%9A%E4%BD%93%E8%82%B2%E8%BF%90%E5%8A%A8%E4%B8%AD%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%B4%E9%83%A8%E6%92%9E%E5%87%BB%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E9%99%8D%E5%99%AA-toc\" name=\"tableOfContents\" style=\"margin-left:80px\">\n   <a href=\"#%EF%BC%88%E4%BA%8C%EF%BC%89%E5%AE%9E%E9%99%85%E6%A1%88%E4%BE%8B%E4%BA%8C%EF%BC%9A%E4%BD%93%E8%82%B2%E8%BF%90%E5%8A%A8%E4%B8%AD%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%B4%E9%83%A8%E6%92%9E%E5%87%BB%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E9%99%8D%E5%99%AA\" rel=\"nofollow\"><br \/>\n    \uff08\u4e8c\uff09\u5b9e\u9645\u6848\u4f8b\u4e8c\uff1a\u4f53\u80b2\u8fd0\u52a8\u4e2d\u7684\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u6570\u636e\u964d\u566a<br \/>\n   <\/a>\n  <\/p>\n<p id=\"%E5%9B%9B%E3%80%81%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E6%AF%94%E8%BE%83%E4%B8%8E%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE-toc\" name=\"tableOfContents\" style=\"margin-left:40px\">\n   <a href=\"#%E5%9B%9B%E3%80%81%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E6%AF%94%E8%BE%83%E4%B8%8E%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE\" rel=\"nofollow\"><br \/>\n    \u56db\u3001\u6a21\u578b\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e0e\u9009\u62e9\u5efa\u8bae<br \/>\n   <\/a>\n  <\/p>\n<p id=\"%EF%BC%88%E4%B8%80%EF%BC%89%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E6%AF%94%E8%BE%83-toc\" name=\"tableOfContents\" style=\"margin-left:80px\">\n   <a href=\"#%EF%BC%88%E4%B8%80%EF%BC%89%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E6%AF%94%E8%BE%83\" rel=\"nofollow\"><br \/>\n    \uff08\u4e00\uff09\u6a21\u578b\u6bd4\u8f83<br \/>\n   <\/a>\n  <\/p>\n<p id=\"%EF%BC%88%E4%BA%8C%EF%BC%89%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE-toc\" name=\"tableOfContents\" style=\"margin-left:80px\">\n   <a href=\"#%EF%BC%88%E4%BA%8C%EF%BC%89%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE\" rel=\"nofollow\"><br \/>\n    \uff08\u4e8c\uff09\u9009\u62e9\u5efa\u8bae<br \/>\n   <\/a>\n  <\/p>\n<hr id=\"hr-toc\" name=\"tableOfContents\"\/>\n<h3 id=\"%E4%B8%80%E3%80%81%E5%BC%95%E8%A8%80\" name=\"%E4%B8%80%E3%80%81%E5%BC%95%E8%A8%80\">\n   \u4e00\u3001\u5f15\u8a00<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<p>\n   \u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u6d4b\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u964d\u566a\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u73b0\u5b9e\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u3002\u5728\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u6d4b\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u5f80\u5f80\u53d7\u5230\u73af\u5883\u566a\u58f0\u3001\u4f20\u611f\u5668\u8bef\u5dee\u7b49\u591a\u79cd\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5e72\u6270\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6570\u636e\u8d28\u91cf\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u540e\u7eed\u5206\u6790\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u548c\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5e94\u7528\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u6548\u5730\u4ece\u566a\u58f0\u4e2d\u63d0\u53d6\u51fa\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u4e3a\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u635f\u4f24\u8bc4\u4f30\u3001\u9884\u9632\u63aa\u65bd\u5236\u5b9a\u4ee5\u53ca\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u7cbe\u786e\u7684\u6570\u636e\u652f\u6301\u3002\u672c\u7ae0\u8282\u5c06\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u51e0\u79cd\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5305\u62ecARIMA\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5\u548c\u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u5b9e\u9645\u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790\u5c55\u793a\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u6570\u636e\u964d\u566a\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u6548\u679c\u3002\n  <\/p>\n<h3 id=\"%E4%BA%8C%E3%80%81%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E5%BA%8F%E5%88%97%E5%BB%BA%E6%A8%A1%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95\" name=\"%E4%BA%8C%E3%80%81%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E5%BA%8F%E5%88%97%E5%BB%BA%E6%A8%A1%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95\">\n   \u4e8c\u3001\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<h4 id=\"%EF%BC%88%E4%B8%80%EF%BC%89ARIMA%20%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B\" name=\"%EF%BC%88%E4%B8%80%EF%BC%89ARIMA%20%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B\">\n   \uff08\u4e00\uff09ARIMA \u6a21\u578b<br \/>\n  <\/h4>\n<p>\n   ARIMA\uff08Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average\uff09\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u5206\u6790\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5b83\u901a\u8fc7\u7ed3\u5408\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\uff08AR\uff09\u3001\u5dee\u5206\uff08I\uff09\u548c\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\uff08MA\uff09\u4e09\u4e2a\u90e8\u5206\u6765\u6355\u6349\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u3001\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u548c\u968f\u673a\u6ce2\u52a8\u7279\u5f81\u3002\n  <\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\n<p>\n     <strong><br \/>\n      \u6a21\u578b\u539f\u7406<br \/>\n     <\/strong><br \/>\n     \uff1aARIMA \u6a21\u578b\u5047\u8bbe\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u5728\u7ecf\u8fc7\u9002\u5f53\u5dee\u5206\u540e\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d8\u5f97\u5e73\u7a33\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u80fd\u591f\u5e94\u7528\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u548c\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u5efa\u6a21\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u6765\u8bf4\uff0cARIMA\uff08p, d, q\uff09\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0cp \u8868\u793a\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u9879\u7684\u9636\u6570\uff0cd \u8868\u793a\u5dee\u5206\u7684\u6b21\u6570\uff0cq \u8868\u793a\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u9879\u7684\u9636\u6570\u3002\n    <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u90e8\u5206\uff08AR\uff09<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u5047\u8bbe\u5f53\u524d\u503c\u4e0e\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684 p \u4e2a\u503c\u5b58\u5728\u7ebf\u6027\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5373 Xt\u200b=c+\u03d51\u200bXt\u22121\u200b+\u03d52\u200bXt\u22122\u200b+&#8230;+\u03d5p\u200bXt\u2212p\u200b+\u03f5t\u200b\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d \u03d51\u200b,\u03d52\u200b,&#8230;,\u03d5p\u200b \u662f\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570\uff0c\u03f5t\u200b \u662f\u767d\u566a\u58f0\u8bef\u5dee\u9879\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u5dee\u5206\u90e8\u5206\uff08I\uff09<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u539f\u59cb\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u8fdb\u884c d \u6b21\u5dee\u5206\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u5e73\u7a33\u5e8f\u5217\u3002\u5dee\u5206\u64cd\u4f5c\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a \u2207dXt\u200b=(1\u2212B)dXt\u200b\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d B \u662f\u540e\u79fb\u7b97\u5b50\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u90e8\u5206\uff08MA\uff09<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u5047\u8bbe\u5f53\u524d\u503c\u4e0e\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684 q \u4e2a\u8bef\u5dee\u9879\u5b58\u5728\u7ebf\u6027\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5373 Xt\u200b=\u03bc+\u03f5t\u200b+\u03b81\u200b\u03f5t\u22121\u200b+\u03b82\u200b\u03f5t\u22122\u200b+&#8230;+\u03b8q\u200b\u03f5t\u2212q\u200b\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d \u03b81\u200b,\u03b82\u200b,&#8230;,\u03b8q\u200b \u662f\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u7cfb\u6570\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n     <strong><br \/>\n      \u5efa\u6a21\u6b65\u9aa4<br \/>\n     <\/strong><br \/>\n     \uff1a\n    <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u6570\u636e\u9884\u5904\u7406<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u5bf9\u539f\u59cb\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u6d4b\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53bb\u9664\u5f02\u5e38\u503c\u3001\u586b\u8865\u7f3a\u5931\u503c\u7b49\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u6570\u636e\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u548c\u5b8c\u6574\u6027\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u5e73\u7a33\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u4f7f\u7528\u5355\u4f4d\u6839\u68c0\u9a8c\u65b9\u6cd5\uff08\u5982ADF\u68c0\u9a8c\uff09\u68c0\u67e5\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u5e73\u7a33\u6027\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5e8f\u5217\u975e\u5e73\u7a33\uff0c\u5219\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u884c\u5dee\u5206\u64cd\u4f5c\u76f4\u81f3\u5e8f\u5217\u5e73\u7a33\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u6a21\u578b\u8bc6\u522b<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u6839\u636e\u81ea\u76f8\u5173\u51fd\u6570\uff08ACF\uff09\u548c\u504f\u81ea\u76f8\u5173\u51fd\u6570\uff08PACF\uff09\u56fe\u786e\u5b9a ARIMA \u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9636\u6570 p \u548c q\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u53c2\u6570\u4f30\u8ba1<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u91c7\u7528\u6700\u5927\u4f3c\u7136\u4f30\u8ba1\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f30\u8ba1\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u6a21\u578b\u8bca\u65ad<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u901a\u8fc7\u68c0\u9a8c\u6b8b\u5dee\u7684\u81ea\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3001\u6b63\u6001\u6027\u7b49\u7edf\u8ba1\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u62df\u5408\u4f18\u5ea6\u548c\u5408\u7406\u6027\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u8bca\u65ad\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u5219\u9700\u8981\u91cd\u65b0\u8c03\u6574\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9636\u6570\u6216\u8fdb\u884c\u5176\u4ed6\u6539\u8fdb\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u9884\u6d4b\u4e0e\u964d\u566a<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u5229\u7528\u4f30\u8ba1\u597d\u7684 ARIMA \u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u6d4b\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u7528\u4e8e\u964d\u566a\u5904\u7406\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u503c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u63d0\u53d6\u51fa\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u566a\u58f0\u7684\u5e72\u6270\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n     <strong><br \/>\n      \u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790<br \/>\n     <\/strong><br \/>\n     \uff1a\u5728\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u6536\u96c6\u4e86\u6a21\u62df\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u7684\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u8be5\u6570\u636e\u53d7\u5230\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u73af\u5883\u566a\u58f0\u6c61\u67d3\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5e94\u7528 ARIMA\uff082,1,2\uff09\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u6210\u529f\u5730\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u964d\u566a\u5904\u7406\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u503c\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u6d4b\u91cf\u503c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5747\u65b9\u6839\u8bef\u5dee\uff08RMSE\uff09\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u7ea6 35%\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u7684\u4fe1\u566a\u6bd4\uff08SNR\uff09\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u7ea6 20 dB\uff0c\u663e\u8457\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u6570\u636e\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u548c\u53ef\u7528\u6027\u3002\n    <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h4 id=\"%EF%BC%88%E4%BA%8C%EF%BC%89%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B0%E5%B9%B3%E6%BB%91%E6%B3%95\" name=\"%EF%BC%88%E4%BA%8C%EF%BC%89%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B0%E5%B9%B3%E6%BB%91%E6%B3%95\">\n   \uff08\u4e8c\uff09\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5<br \/>\n  <\/h4>\n<p>\n   \u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7b80\u5355\u800c\u6709\u6548\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5b83\u901a\u8fc7\u4e3a\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u7684\u6570\u636e\u8d4b\u4e88\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u6765\u5e73\u6ed1\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u51cf\u5f31\u566a\u58f0\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5e76\u7a81\u51fa\u6570\u636e\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\n  <\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\n<p>\n     <strong><br \/>\n      \u6a21\u578b\u539f\u7406<br \/>\n     <\/strong><br \/>\n     \uff1a\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u601d\u60f3\u662f\u8d4b\u4e88\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u6743\u91cd\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u8f83\u65e9\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c\u8d4b\u4e88\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u6743\u91cd\uff0c\u6743\u91cd\u5448\u6307\u6570\u7ea7\u9012\u51cf\u3002\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5\u5305\u62ec\u7b80\u5355\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\uff08SES\uff09\u3001\u970d\u5c14\u7279\u7ebf\u6027\u8d8b\u52bf\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\uff08Holt\u2019s method\uff09\u548c\u970d\u5c14\u7279-\u6e29\u7279\u65af\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\uff08Holt-Winters method\uff09\u3002\n    <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u7b80\u5355\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\uff08SES\uff09<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u6ca1\u6709\u660e\u663e\u8d8b\u52bf\u548c\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u7684\u5e73\u7a33\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u3002\u5176\u9884\u6d4b\u516c\u5f0f\u4e3a X^t+1\u200b=\u03b1Xt\u200b+(1\u2212\u03b1)X^t\u200b\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d \u03b1 \u662f\u5e73\u6ed1\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u53d6\u503c\u8303\u56f4\u5728 0 \u5230 1 \u4e4b\u95f4\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u970d\u5c14\u7279\u7ebf\u6027\u8d8b\u52bf\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\uff08Holt\u2019s method\uff09<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u5177\u6709\u7ebf\u6027\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u3002\u5b83\u5305\u62ec\u6c34\u5e73\u5206\u91cf\u548c\u5e73\u6ed1\u8d8b\u52bf\u5206\u91cf\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u516c\u5f0f\u4e3a\uff1a\n      <\/p>\n<p>      X^t+1\u200b=\u2113t\u200b+bt\u200b<\/p>\n<p>\n       \u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u2113t\u200b=\u03b1Xt\u200b+(1\u2212\u03b1)(\u2113t\u22121\u200b+bt\u22121\u200b) \u8868\u793a\u6c34\u5e73\u5206\u91cf\uff0cbt\u200b=\u03b2(\u2113t\u200b\u2212\u2113t\u22121\u200b)+(1\u2212\u03b2)bt\u22121\u200b \u8868\u793a\u8d8b\u52bf\u5206\u91cf\uff0c\u03b1 \u548c \u03b2 \u5206\u522b\u662f\u6c34\u5e73\u548c\u5e73\u6ed1\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u5e73\u6ed1\u53c2\u6570\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u970d\u5c14\u7279-\u6e29\u7279\u65af\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\uff08Holt-Winters method\uff09<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u5177\u6709\u8d8b\u52bf\u548c\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u3002\u5b83\u5728\u970d\u5c14\u7279\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u5206\u91cf\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u5904\u7406\u5177\u6709\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u6570\u636e\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n     <strong><br \/>\n      \u5efa\u6a21\u6b65\u9aa4<br \/>\n     <\/strong><br \/>\n     \uff1a\n    <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u9009\u62e9\u5408\u9002\u7684\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u65b9\u6cd5<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u6839\u636e\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u6d4b\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7279\u70b9\uff0c\u5224\u65ad\u5176\u662f\u5426\u5305\u542b\u8d8b\u52bf\u3001\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u7b49\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u9009\u62e9\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u786e\u5b9a\u5e73\u6ed1\u53c2\u6570<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u901a\u8fc7\u7f51\u683c\u641c\u7d22\u3001\u6700\u5c0f\u5316\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5\u786e\u5b9a\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5\u4e2d\u7684\u5e73\u6ed1\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u5982 \u03b1\u3001\u03b2 \u7b49\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u6a21\u578b\u8bad\u7ec3\u4e0e\u9884\u6d4b<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u4f7f\u7528\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u5bf9\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u503c\u548c\u53c2\u6570\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u7136\u540e\u5229\u7528\u8bad\u7ec3\u597d\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u6d4b\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5e76\u6839\u636e\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u8fdb\u884c\u964d\u566a\u5904\u7406\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u6a21\u578b\u4f18\u5316<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u6839\u636e\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u548c\u6570\u636e\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5b9a\u671f\u66f4\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u548c\u5e73\u6ed1\u7cfb\u6570\uff0c\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u964d\u566a\u6548\u679c\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n     <strong><br \/>\n      \u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790<br \/>\n     <\/strong><br \/>\n     \uff1a\u5728\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u6d4b\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u964d\u566a\u4e2d\uff0c\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5\u4e5f\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u4e86\u826f\u597d\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u7ec4\u5305\u542b\u566a\u58f0\u7684\u5934\u90e8\u65cb\u8f6c\u901f\u5ea6\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5e94\u7528\u970d\u5c14\u7279\u7ebf\u6027\u8d8b\u52bf\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u964d\u566a\u5904\u7406\u540e\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u7684 RMSE \u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u636e\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u7ea6 28%\uff0cSNR \u63d0\u5347\u4e86\u7ea6 16 dB\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5feb\u901f\u5730\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u5b9e\u65f6\u6216\u8fd1\u5b9e\u65f6\u7684\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u6570\u636e\u76d1\u6d4b\u573a\u666f\u3002\n    <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h4 id=\"%EF%BC%88%E4%B8%89%EF%BC%89%E5%B0%8F%E6%B3%A2%E5%8F%98%E6%8D%A2\" name=\"%EF%BC%88%E4%B8%89%EF%BC%89%E5%B0%8F%E6%B3%A2%E5%8F%98%E6%8D%A2\">\n   \uff08\u4e09\uff09\u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362<br \/>\n  <\/h4>\n<p>\n   \u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u591a\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u540c\u65f6\u5728\u65f6\u57df\u548c\u9891\u57df\u5bf9\u4fe1\u53f7\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u975e\u5e73\u7a33\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u7684\u964d\u566a\u5177\u6709\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u3002\n  <\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\n<p>\n     <strong><br \/>\n      \u6a21\u578b\u539f\u7406<br \/>\n     <\/strong><br \/>\n     \uff1a\u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u4fe1\u53f7\u5206\u89e3\u4e3a\u4e0d\u540c\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u5c0f\u6ce2\u57fa\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u5bf9\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u591a\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u8868\u793a\u3002\u5728\u964d\u566a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u4fe1\u53f7\u4e0e\u566a\u58f0\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u79bb\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u9608\u503c\u5904\u7406\u53bb\u9664\u566a\u58f0\u6210\u5206\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u8fdb\u884c\u5c0f\u6ce2\u9006\u53d8\u6362\u91cd\u5efa\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\n    <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u8fde\u7eed\u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362\uff08CWT\uff09<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u5bf9\u8fde\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u4fe1\u53f7\u8fdb\u884c\u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362\uff0c\u5176\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\uff1a\n      <\/p>\n<p>      W(a,b)=a\u200b1\u200b\u222b\u2212\u221e\u221e\u200bX(t)\u03c8\u2217(at\u2212b\u200b)dt<\/p>\n<p>\n       \u5176\u4e2d\uff0ca \u662f\u5c3a\u5ea6\u53c2\u6570\uff0cb \u662f\u5e73\u79fb\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u03c8\u2217 \u662f\u5c0f\u6ce2\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u590d\u5171\u8f6d\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u79bb\u6563\u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362\uff08DWT\uff09<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u5c06\u8fde\u7eed\u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362\u79bb\u6563\u5316\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u9009\u62e9\u5c3a\u5ea6\u53c2\u6570 a=2j \u548c\u5e73\u79fb\u53c2\u6570 b=k\u22c52j\uff08\u5176\u4e2d j,k \u4e3a\u6574\u6570\uff09\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5b9e\u73b0\u5feb\u901f\u8ba1\u7b97\u548c\u591a\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u5206\u6790\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u5c0f\u6ce2\u9608\u503c\u53bb\u566a<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u57fa\u4e8e\u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362\u7684\u964d\u566a\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5728\u5c0f\u6ce2\u57df\u5bf9\u7cfb\u6570\u8fdb\u884c\u9608\u503c\u5904\u7406\u6765\u53bb\u9664\u566a\u58f0\u3002\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5305\u62ec\u786c\u9608\u503c\u6cd5\u548c\u8f6f\u9608\u503c\u6cd5\uff1a\n      <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\n         <strong><br \/>\n          \u786c\u9608\u503c\u6cd5<br \/>\n         <\/strong><br \/>\n         \uff1a\u5c06\u5c0f\u4e8e\u9608\u503c\u7684\u7cfb\u6570\u8bbe\u4e3a\u96f6\uff0c\u5927\u4e8e\u6216\u7b49\u4e8e\u9608\u503c\u7684\u7cfb\u6570\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u5373 d^i\u200b=di\u200b \u5982\u679c \u2223di\u200b\u2223\u2265\u03bb\uff0c\u5426\u5219 d^i\u200b=0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d di\u200b \u662f\u5c0f\u6ce2\u7cfb\u6570\uff0c\u03bb \u662f\u9608\u503c\u3002\n        <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n         <strong><br \/>\n          \u8f6f\u9608\u503c\u6cd5<br \/>\n         <\/strong><br \/>\n         \uff1a\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5c06\u5c0f\u4e8e\u9608\u503c\u7684\u7cfb\u6570\u8bbe\u4e3a\u96f6\uff0c\u8fd8\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5927\u4e8e\u6216\u7b49\u4e8e\u9608\u503c\u7684\u7cfb\u6570\u8fdb\u884c\u6536\u7f29\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u5373 d^i\u200b=sign(di\u200b)\u22c5(\u2223di\u200b\u2223\u2212\u03bb) \u5982\u679c \u2223di\u200b\u2223\u2265\u03bb\uff0c\u5426\u5219 d^i\u200b=0\u3002\u8f6f\u9608\u503c\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u786c\u9608\u503c\u6cd5\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u4f2a\u5409\u5e03\u65af\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u4f7f\u4fe1\u53f7\u66f4\u52a0\u5e73\u6ed1\u3002\n        <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n     <strong><br \/>\n      \u5efa\u6a21\u6b65\u9aa4<br \/>\n     <\/strong><br \/>\n     \uff1a\n    <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u9009\u62e9\u5408\u9002\u7684\u5c0f\u6ce2\u57fa\u51fd\u6570<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u6839\u636e\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u6d4b\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7279\u6027\u548c\u964d\u566a\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u5408\u9002\u7684\u5c0f\u6ce2\u57fa\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u5982 Daubechies \u5c0f\u6ce2\u3001Symlets \u5c0f\u6ce2\u7b49\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5c0f\u6ce2\u57fa\u51fd\u6570\u5728\u65f6\u9891\u5c40\u90e8\u5316\u7279\u6027\u3001\u6b63\u5219\u6027\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u5b58\u5728\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6570\u636e\u548c\u566a\u58f0\u73af\u5883\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u786e\u5b9a\u5206\u89e3\u5c42\u6b21<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u786e\u5b9a\u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362\u7684\u5206\u89e3\u5c42\u6b21\uff0c\u5373\u4fe1\u53f7\u88ab\u5206\u89e3\u4e3a\u591a\u5c11\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5c3a\u5ea6\u3002\u5206\u89e3\u5c42\u6b21\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u901a\u5e38\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\u6570\u636e\u7684\u91c7\u6837\u7387\u3001\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u4ee5\u53ca\u566a\u58f0\u7684\u9891\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5206\u89e3\u5c42\u6b21\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u6355\u6349\u5230\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u7ec6\u8282\u4fe1\u606f\u8d8a\u4e30\u5bcc\uff0c\u4f46\u8ba1\u7b97\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u4e5f\u4f1a\u76f8\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u5c0f\u6ce2\u5206\u89e3<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u5bf9\u539f\u59cb\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u6d4b\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u5c0f\u6ce2\u5206\u89e3\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u4e0d\u540c\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0b\u7684\u8fd1\u4f3c\u7cfb\u6570\u548c\u7ec6\u8282\u7cfb\u6570\u3002\u8fd1\u4f3c\u7cfb\u6570\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u4f4e\u9891\u6210\u5206\uff0c\u800c\u7ec6\u8282\u7cfb\u6570\u5219\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u9ad8\u9891\u7ec6\u8282\u548c\u566a\u58f0\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u9608\u503c\u5904\u7406<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u9488\u5bf9\u7ec6\u8282\u7cfb\u6570\u8fdb\u884c\u9608\u503c\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u4ee5\u53bb\u9664\u566a\u58f0\u6210\u5206\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u5168\u5c40\u9608\u503c\u6216\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u9608\u503c\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5982\u57fa\u4e8e Stein \u65e0\u504f\u98ce\u9669\u4f30\u8ba1\uff08SURE\uff09\u7684\u9608\u503c\u3001\u6781\u5c0f\u6781\u5927\u9608\u503c\u7b49\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u566a\u58f0\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u7279\u6027\uff08\u5982\u65b9\u5dee\uff09\u548c\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u7279\u70b9\uff0c\u8c03\u6574\u9608\u503c\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u4ee5\u8fbe\u5230\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u964d\u566a\u6548\u679c\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u5c0f\u6ce2\u91cd\u6784<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u5229\u7528\u5904\u7406\u540e\u7684\u8fd1\u4f3c\u7cfb\u6570\u548c\u7ec6\u8282\u7cfb\u6570\u8fdb\u884c\u5c0f\u6ce2\u9006\u53d8\u6362\uff0c\u91cd\u5efa\u964d\u566a\u540e\u7684\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u6d4b\u91cf\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n     <strong><br \/>\n      \u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790<br \/>\n     <\/strong><br \/>\n     \uff1a\u5728\u4e00\u9879\u9488\u5bf9\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u6d4b\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u7684\u964d\u566a\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528 Symlets \u5c0f\u6ce2\u5bf9\u5305\u542b\u566a\u58f0\u7684\u5934\u90e8\u4f4d\u79fb\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86 5 \u5c42\u5206\u89e3\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5bf9\u7ec6\u8282\u7cfb\u6570\u5e94\u7528\u8f6f\u9608\u503c\u5904\u7406\u8fdb\u884c\u964d\u566a\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362\u964d\u566a\u540e\u7684\u6570\u636e RMSE \u76f8\u6bd4\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u636e\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u7ea6 42%\uff0cSNR \u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u7ea6 25 dB\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u66f4\u6e05\u6670\u5730\u53cd\u6620\u5934\u90e8\u5728\u649e\u51fb\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u4f4d\u79fb\u53d8\u5316\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u4e3a\u540e\u7eed\u7684\u635f\u4f24\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u5206\u6790\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u66f4\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u6570\u636e\u57fa\u7840\u3002\n    <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h3 id=\"%E4%B8%89%E3%80%81%E5%AE%9E%E9%99%85%E6%A1%88%E4%BE%8B%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90\" name=\"%E4%B8%89%E3%80%81%E5%AE%9E%E9%99%85%E6%A1%88%E4%BE%8B%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90\">\n   \u4e09\u3001\u5b9e\u9645\u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<h4 id=\"%EF%BC%88%E4%B8%80%EF%BC%89%E5%AE%9E%E9%99%85%E6%A1%88%E4%BE%8B%E4%B8%80%EF%BC%9A%E6%B1%BD%E8%BD%A6%E7%A2%B0%E6%92%9E%E8%AF%95%E9%AA%8C%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E9%99%8D%E5%99%AA\" name=\"%EF%BC%88%E4%B8%80%EF%BC%89%E5%AE%9E%E9%99%85%E6%A1%88%E4%BE%8B%E4%B8%80%EF%BC%9A%E6%B1%BD%E8%BD%A6%E7%A2%B0%E6%92%9E%E8%AF%95%E9%AA%8C%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E9%99%8D%E5%99%AA\">\n   \uff08\u4e00\uff09\u5b9e\u9645\u6848\u4f8b\u4e00\uff1a\u6c7d\u8f66\u78b0\u649e\u8bd5\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u964d\u566a<br \/>\n  <\/h4>\n<p>\n   \u5728\u6c7d\u8f66\u78b0\u649e\u5b89\u5168\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e2d\uff0c\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u6d4b\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e58\u5458\u53d7\u4f24\u98ce\u9669\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e2d\u91c7\u96c6\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5f80\u5f80\u53d7\u5230\u6d4b\u8bd5\u73af\u5883\u566a\u58f0\u3001\u4f20\u611f\u5668\u5e72\u6270\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6570\u636e\u8d28\u91cf\u53c2\u5dee\u4e0d\u9f50\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u5e94\u7528\u4e0a\u8ff0\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bf9\u67d0\u6b21\u6c7d\u8f66\u6b63\u9762\u78b0\u649e\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\u5047\u4eba\u5934\u90e8\u7684\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u89d2\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u964d\u566a\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u663e\u8457\u7684\u6548\u679c\u3002\n  <\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\n<p>\n     <strong><br \/>\n      \u6570\u636e\u91c7\u96c6\u4e0e\u9884\u5904\u7406<br \/>\n     <\/strong><br \/>\n     \uff1a\u5728\u6c7d\u8f66\u78b0\u649e\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5b89\u88c5\u5728\u5047\u4eba\u5934\u90e8\u7684\u591a\u4e2a\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u4f20\u611f\u5668\u548c\u9640\u87ba\u4eea\uff0c\u4ee5 1000 Hz \u7684\u91c7\u6837\u9891\u7387\u91c7\u96c6\u4e86\u78b0\u649e\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u89d2\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u3002\u6570\u636e\u91c7\u96c6\u540e\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u9884\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53bb\u9664\u660e\u663e\u7684\u5f02\u5e38\u503c\uff08\u5982\u8d85\u51fa\u4f20\u611f\u5668\u91cf\u7a0b\u7684\u6570\u503c\uff09\u548c\u586b\u8865\u5c11\u91cf\u7f3a\u5931\u6570\u636e\u70b9\uff08\u91c7\u7528\u7ebf\u6027\u63d2\u503c\u65b9\u6cd5\uff09\u3002\n    <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n     <strong><br \/>\n      ARIMA \u6a21\u578b\u5e94\u7528<br \/>\n     <\/strong><br \/>\n     \uff1a\n    <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u5e73\u7a33\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u5bf9\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u89d2\u901f\u5ea6\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5206\u522b\u8fdb\u884c ADF \u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u539f\u59cb\u5e8f\u5217\u5b58\u5728\u660e\u663e\u7684\u975e\u5e73\u7a33\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86 1 \u6b21\u5dee\u5206\u64cd\u4f5c\u3002\u5dee\u5206\u540e\u7684\u5e8f\u5217 ADF \u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u5206\u522b\u4e3a -3.45 \u548c -3.87\uff0c\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684 p \u503c\u5747\u5c0f\u4e8e 0.05\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u5dee\u5206\u540e\u7684\u5e8f\u5217\u5728 95% \u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0b\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u5e73\u7a33\u7684\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u6a21\u578b\u8bc6\u522b\u4e0e\u53c2\u6570\u4f30\u8ba1<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u7ed8\u5236\u5dee\u5206\u540e\u5e8f\u5217\u7684 ACF \u548c PACF \u56fe\uff0c\u521d\u6b65\u786e\u5b9a ARIMA \u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9636\u6570 p \u548c q\u3002\u7ecf\u8fc7\u53cd\u590d\u8bd5\u9a8c\u548c\u6a21\u578b\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u786e\u5b9a\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u91c7\u7528 ARIMA\uff082,1,1\uff09\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u89d2\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u91c7\u7528 ARIMA\uff081,1,2\uff09\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u4f7f\u7528\u6700\u5927\u4f3c\u7136\u4f30\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u53c2\u6570\u8fdb\u884c\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570\u4e3a \u03d51\u200b=0.32\u3001\u03d52\u200b=\u22120.18\uff0c\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u7cfb\u6570\u4e3a \u03b81\u200b=0.56\uff1b\u89d2\u901f\u5ea6\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570\u4e3a \u03d51\u200b=0.47\uff0c\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u7cfb\u6570\u4e3a \u03b81\u200b=0.33\u3001\u03b82\u200b=\u22120.21\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u6a21\u578b\u8bca\u65ad\u4e0e\u4f18\u5316<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u68c0\u67e5\u6a21\u578b\u6b8b\u5dee\u7684\u81ea\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u548c\u6b63\u6001\u6027\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u6b8b\u5dee\u7684 ACF \u56fe\u5728\u6ede\u540e\u671f\u5185\u5747\u5728\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u5185\uff0c\u4e14\u6b63\u6001\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\u7684 p \u503c\u5927\u4e8e 0.05\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u6a21\u578b\u62df\u5408\u8f83\u597d\u3002\u5229\u7528\u4f30\u8ba1\u597d\u7684 ARIMA \u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u89d2\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u964d\u566a\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u6d4b\u91cf\u503c\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\u5982\u56fe 1 \u6240\u793a\u3002\u4ece\u56fe\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0cARIMA \u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u591f\u8f83\u597d\u5730\u62df\u5408\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u636e\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u6709\u6548\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u566a\u58f0\u7684\u5e72\u6270\uff0c\u4f7f\u6570\u636e\u66f4\u52a0\u5e73\u6ed1\u548c\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u7ed3\u679c\u8bc4\u4f30<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u964d\u566a\u524d\u540e\u6570\u636e\u7684 RMSE \u548c SNR \u6307\u6807\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30 ARIMA \u6a21\u578b\u7684\u964d\u566a\u6548\u679c\u3002\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u7684 RMSE \u4ece\u539f\u59cb\u7684 12.8 m\/s2 \u964d\u4f4e\u5230 8.6 m\/s2\uff0cSNR \u63d0\u5347\u4e86\u7ea6 18 dB\uff1b\u89d2\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u7684 RMSE \u4ece\u539f\u59cb\u7684 18.4 rad\/s \u964d\u4f4e\u5230 12.3 rad\/s\uff0cSNR \u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u7ea6 21 dB\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e ARIMA \u6a21\u578b\u5728\u6c7d\u8f66\u78b0\u649e\u8bd5\u9a8c\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u6570\u636e\u964d\u566a\u4e2d\u5177\u6709\u826f\u597d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u6548\u679c\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n     <strong><br \/>\n      \u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5\u5e94\u7528<br \/>\n     <\/strong><br \/>\n     \uff1a\n    <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u65b9\u6cd5\u9009\u62e9\u4e0e\u53c2\u6570\u786e\u5b9a<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u8003\u8651\u5230\u6c7d\u8f66\u78b0\u649e\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\u7684\u5934\u90e8\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u89d2\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u80fd\u5305\u542b\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u970d\u5c14\u7279\u7ebf\u6027\u8d8b\u52bf\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u964d\u566a\u5904\u7406\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u7f51\u683c\u641c\u7d22\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5728\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e0a\u5bfb\u627e\u4f7f\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u6700\u5c0f\u7684\u5e73\u6ed1\u53c2\u6570 \u03b1 \u548c \u03b2\u3002\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4f18\u5316\uff0c\u786e\u5b9a\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u7684 \u03b1=0.45\u3001\u03b2=0.32\uff0c\u89d2\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u7684 \u03b1=0.51\u3001\u03b2=0.28\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u9884\u6d4b\u4e0e\u964d\u566a<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u5229\u7528\u786e\u5b9a\u597d\u7684\u5e73\u6ed1\u53c2\u6570\u5bf9\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u89d2\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u964d\u566a\u540e\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5e8f\u5217\u3002\u5982\u56fe 2 \u6240\u793a\uff0c\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5\u80fd\u591f\u5e73\u6ed1\u6570\u636e\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u63d0\u53d6\u51fa\u6570\u636e\u7684\u957f\u671f\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u566a\u58f0\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4e0e\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u636e\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u964d\u566a\u540e\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5728\u89c6\u89c9\u4e0a\u66f4\u52a0\u5e73\u6ed1\uff0c\u4e14\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u7269\u7406\u8fc7\u7a0b\u66f4\u4e3a\u7b26\u5408\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u7ed3\u679c\u8bc4\u4f30<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u7ecf\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5\u964d\u566a\u540e\u7684 RMSE \u4e3a 9.8 m\/s2\uff0cSNR \u63d0\u5347\u4e86\u7ea6 15 dB\uff1b\u89d2\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u7684 RMSE \u4e3a 14.2 rad\/s\uff0cSNR \u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u7ea6 17 dB\u3002\u867d\u7136\u5176\u964d\u566a\u6548\u679c\u7565\u900a\u4e8e ARIMA \u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4f46\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u901f\u5ea6\u66f4\u5feb\uff0c\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u9700\u8981\u5feb\u901f\u6570\u636e\u5904\u7406\u7684\u573a\u666f\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n     <strong><br \/>\n      \u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362\u5e94\u7528<br \/>\n     <\/strong><br \/>\n     \uff1a\n    <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u5c0f\u6ce2\u57fa\u51fd\u6570\u4e0e\u5206\u89e3\u5c42\u6b21\u9009\u62e9<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u6839\u636e\u6c7d\u8f66\u78b0\u649e\u8bd5\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u548c\u964d\u566a\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u9009\u62e9\u4e86 Db4 \u5c0f\u6ce2\u4f5c\u4e3a\u57fa\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u5e76\u786e\u5b9a\u8fdb\u884c 4 \u5c42\u5c0f\u6ce2\u5206\u89e3\u3002Db4 \u5c0f\u6ce2\u5177\u6709\u8f83\u597d\u7684\u65f6\u9891\u5c40\u90e8\u5316\u7279\u6027\u548c\u6b63\u5219\u6027\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u9002\u5e94\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u6570\u636e\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u7279\u6027\uff1b4 \u5c42\u5206\u89e3\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u6355\u6349\u6570\u636e\u4e3b\u8981\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u6548\u7387\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u9608\u503c\u5904\u7406\u4e0e\u91cd\u6784<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u5bf9\u5c0f\u6ce2\u5206\u89e3\u540e\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u7ec6\u8282\u7cfb\u6570\uff0c\u91c7\u7528\u57fa\u4e8e SURE \u7684\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u8f6f\u9608\u503c\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u5904\u7406\u3002SURE \u9608\u503c\u80fd\u591f\u6839\u636e\u6570\u636e\u7684\u566a\u58f0\u6c34\u5e73\u81ea\u52a8\u8c03\u6574\u9608\u503c\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u4f7f\u964d\u566a\u540e\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u66f4\u52a0\u8d34\u8fd1\u771f\u5b9e\u503c\u3002\u7ecf\u8fc7\u9608\u503c\u5904\u7406\u540e\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u5c0f\u6ce2\u91cd\u6784\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u964d\u566a\u540e\u7684\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u89d2\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u3002\u5982\u56fe 3 \u6240\u793a\uff0c\u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362\u964d\u566a\u540e\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5728\u4fdd\u7559\u4fe1\u53f7\u7ec6\u8282\u65b9\u9762\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u8272\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u6e05\u6670\u5730\u53cd\u6620\u78b0\u649e\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5934\u90e8\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u53d8\u5316\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6709\u6548\u6291\u5236\u4e86\u566a\u58f0\u7684\u5e72\u6270\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u7ed3\u679c\u8bc4\u4f30<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u7684 RMSE \u964d\u4f4e\u5230 7.9 m\/s2\uff0cSNR \u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u7ea6 23 dB\uff1b\u89d2\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u7684 RMSE \u4e3a 11.8 rad\/s\uff0cSNR \u63d0\u5347\u4e86\u7ea6 24 dB\u3002\u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362\u5728\u672c\u6b21\u6c7d\u8f66\u78b0\u649e\u8bd5\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u964d\u566a\u4e2d\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u4e86\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u6027\u80fd\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u4e3a\u540e\u7eed\u7684\u4e58\u5458\u53d7\u4f24\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u63d0\u4f9b\u9ad8\u7cbe\u5ea6\u7684\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u6570\u636e\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h4 id=\"%EF%BC%88%E4%BA%8C%EF%BC%89%E5%AE%9E%E9%99%85%E6%A1%88%E4%BE%8B%E4%BA%8C%EF%BC%9A%E4%BD%93%E8%82%B2%E8%BF%90%E5%8A%A8%E4%B8%AD%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%B4%E9%83%A8%E6%92%9E%E5%87%BB%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E9%99%8D%E5%99%AA\" name=\"%EF%BC%88%E4%BA%8C%EF%BC%89%E5%AE%9E%E9%99%85%E6%A1%88%E4%BE%8B%E4%BA%8C%EF%BC%9A%E4%BD%93%E8%82%B2%E8%BF%90%E5%8A%A8%E4%B8%AD%E7%9A%84%E5%A4%B4%E9%83%A8%E6%92%9E%E5%87%BB%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E9%99%8D%E5%99%AA\">\n   \uff08\u4e8c\uff09\u5b9e\u9645\u6848\u4f8b\u4e8c\uff1a\u4f53\u80b2\u8fd0\u52a8\u4e2d\u7684\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u6570\u636e\u964d\u566a<br \/>\n  <\/h4>\n<p>\n   \u5728\u4f53\u80b2\u8fd0\u52a8\u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u8db3\u7403\u3001\u6a44\u6984\u7403\u7b49\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u8fd0\u52a8\u5458\u5934\u90e8\u906d\u53d7\u649e\u51fb\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u8f83\u4e3a\u5e38\u89c1\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u51c6\u786e\u8bc4\u4f30\u8fd0\u52a8\u5458\u5934\u90e8\u53d7\u5230\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u529b\u5ea6\u548c\u6f5c\u5728\u635f\u4f24\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u5bf9\u4f53\u80b2\u6bd4\u8d5b\u4e2d\u91c7\u96c6\u7684\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u6d4b\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u964d\u566a\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u91c7\u7528\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u826f\u597d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u6548\u679c\u3002\n  <\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\n<p>\n     <strong><br \/>\n      \u6570\u636e\u91c7\u96c6\u4e0e\u9884\u5904\u7406<br \/>\n     <\/strong><br \/>\n     \uff1a\u5728\u4e00\u573a\u804c\u4e1a\u8db3\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd0\u52a8\u5458\u5934\u76d4\u5185\u7f6e\u7684\u4f20\u611f\u5668\u4ee5 200 Hz \u7684\u91c7\u6837\u9891\u7387\u91c7\u96c6\u4e86\u5934\u90e8\u5728\u53d7\u5230\u649e\u51fb\u65f6\u7684\u7ebf\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u89d2\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u3002\u6570\u636e\u91c7\u96c6\u540e\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u9884\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53bb\u9664\u56e0\u4f20\u611f\u5668\u78b0\u649e\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u77ed\u6682\u9971\u548c\u5f02\u5e38\u503c\uff08\u91c7\u7528\u4e2d\u503c\u6ee4\u6ce2\u65b9\u6cd5\uff09\u548c\u586b\u8865\u56e0\u4fe1\u53f7\u4f20\u8f93\u4e2d\u65ad\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5c11\u91cf\u7f3a\u5931\u6570\u636e\uff08\u91c7\u7528\u4e09\u6b21\u6837\u6761\u63d2\u503c\u65b9\u6cd5\uff09\u3002\n    <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n     <strong><br \/>\n      ARIMA \u6a21\u578b\u5e94\u7528<br \/>\n     <\/strong><br \/>\n     \uff1a\n    <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u5e73\u7a33\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u5bf9\u7ebf\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u89d2\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u8fdb\u884c ADF \u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u539f\u59cb\u5e8f\u5217\u5b58\u5728\u975e\u5e73\u7a33\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86 1 \u6b21\u5dee\u5206\u64cd\u4f5c\u3002\u5dee\u5206\u540e\u7684\u5e8f\u5217 ADF \u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u5206\u522b\u4e3a -2.98 \u548c -3.15\uff0c\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684 p \u503c\u5747\u5c0f\u4e8e 0.05\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u5e8f\u5217\u5728 95% \u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0b\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c6\u4e3a\u5e73\u7a33\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u6a21\u578b\u8bc6\u522b\u4e0e\u53c2\u6570\u4f30\u8ba1<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u7ed8\u5236\u5dee\u5206\u540e\u5e8f\u5217\u7684 ACF \u548c PACF \u56fe\uff0c\u786e\u5b9a ARIMA \u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9636\u6570\u3002\u7ecf\u8fc7\u53cd\u590d\u8bd5\u9a8c\u548c\u6a21\u578b\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u7ebf\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u91c7\u7528 ARIMA\uff081,1,1\uff09\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u89d2\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u91c7\u7528 ARIMA\uff082,1,2\uff09\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u4f7f\u7528\u6700\u5927\u4f3c\u7136\u4f30\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u53c2\u6570\u8fdb\u884c\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u7ebf\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570\u4e3a \u03d51\u200b=0.57\uff0c\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u7cfb\u6570\u4e3a \u03b81\u200b=0.43\uff1b\u89d2\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570\u4e3a \u03d51\u200b=0.39\u3001\u03d52\u200b=\u22120.15\uff0c\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u7cfb\u6570\u4e3a \u03b81\u200b=0.41\u3001\u03b82\u200b=0.24\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u6a21\u578b\u8bca\u65ad\u4e0e\u4f18\u5316<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u6a21\u578b\u6b8b\u5dee\u7684\u81ea\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\u548c\u6b63\u6001\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u6b8b\u5dee\u5e8f\u5217\u5177\u6709\u826f\u597d\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6027\u548c\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u6a21\u578b\u62df\u5408\u6548\u679c\u8f83\u4f18\u3002\u5229\u7528 ARIMA \u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u7ebf\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u89d2\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u964d\u566a\u5904\u7406\u540e\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u7684 RMSE \u5206\u522b\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u7ea6 29% \u548c 33%\uff0cSNR \u5206\u522b\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u7ea6 17 dB \u548c 19 dB\uff0c\u6709\u6548\u6539\u5584\u4e86\u6570\u636e\u8d28\u91cf\uff0c\u4e3a\u8fd0\u52a8\u5458\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u635f\u4f24\u8bc4\u4f30\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u66f4\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u6570\u636e\u652f\u6301\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n     <strong><br \/>\n      \u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5\u5e94\u7528<br \/>\n     <\/strong><br \/>\n     \uff1a\n    <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u65b9\u6cd5\u9009\u62e9\u4e0e\u53c2\u6570\u786e\u5b9a<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u9274\u4e8e\u4f53\u80b2\u8fd0\u52a8\u4e2d\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u8d8b\u52bf\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u970d\u5c14\u7279\u7ebf\u6027\u8d8b\u52bf\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5728\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e0a\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u4f18\u5316\uff0c\u786e\u5b9a\u7ebf\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u7684 \u03b1=0.41\u3001\u03b2=0.29\uff0c\u89d2\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u7684 \u03b1=0.38\u3001\u03b2=0.34\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u9884\u6d4b\u4e0e\u964d\u566a<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u5e94\u7528\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u964d\u566a\u5904\u7406\u540e\uff0c\u7ebf\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u7684 RMSE \u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u7ea6 23%\uff0cSNR \u63d0\u5347\u4e86\u7ea6 14 dB\uff1b\u89d2\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u7684 RMSE \u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u7ea6 26%\uff0cSNR \u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u7ea6 16 dB\u3002\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5\u5728\u4f53\u80b2\u8fd0\u52a8\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u6570\u636e\u964d\u566a\u4e2d\u5177\u6709\u8f83\u5feb\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u8f83\u597d\u7684\u5b9e\u65f6\u6027\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u6ee1\u8db3\u4f53\u80b2\u6bd4\u8d5b\u4e2d\u5bf9\u8fd0\u52a8\u5458\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u76d1\u6d4b\u7684\u5b9e\u65f6\u6570\u636e\u5904\u7406\u9700\u6c42\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n     <strong><br \/>\n      \u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362\u5e94\u7528<br \/>\n     <\/strong><br \/>\n     \uff1a\n    <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u5c0f\u6ce2\u57fa\u51fd\u6570\u4e0e\u5206\u89e3\u5c42\u6b21\u9009\u62e9<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u9009\u62e9\u4e86 Symlets 5 \u5c0f\u6ce2\u4f5c\u4e3a\u57fa\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u5e76\u786e\u5b9a\u8fdb\u884c 3 \u5c42\u5c0f\u6ce2\u5206\u89e3\u3002Symlets 5 \u5c0f\u6ce2\u5177\u6709\u8f83\u597d\u7684\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\u548c\u6b63\u5219\u6027\uff0c\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u4f53\u80b2\u8fd0\u52a8\u4e2d\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u6570\u636e\u7684\u964d\u566a\u5904\u7406\uff1b3 \u5c42\u5206\u89e3\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u4fdd\u7559\u6570\u636e\u5173\u952e\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u8ba1\u7b97\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u9608\u503c\u5904\u7406\u4e0e\u91cd\u6784<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u5bf9\u7ec6\u8282\u7cfb\u6570\u91c7\u7528\u57fa\u4e8e\u6781\u5c0f\u6781\u5927\u9608\u503c\u7684\u8f6f\u9608\u503c\u5904\u7406\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u80fd\u591f\u6839\u636e\u566a\u58f0\u7684\u65b9\u5dee\u81ea\u52a8\u786e\u5b9a\u9608\u503c\uff0c\u6709\u6548\u53bb\u9664\u566a\u58f0\u6210\u5206\u3002\u7ecf\u8fc7\u5c0f\u6ce2\u91cd\u6784\u540e\uff0c\u7ebf\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u89d2\u52a0\u901f\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u7684 RMSE \u5206\u522b\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u7ea6 37% \u548c 41%\uff0cSNR \u5206\u522b\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u7ea6 22 dB \u548c 24 dB\u3002\u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362\u5728\u4f53\u80b2\u8fd0\u52a8\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u6570\u636e\u964d\u566a\u4e2d\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u4e86\u5353\u8d8a\u7684\u6027\u80fd\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u66f4\u6e05\u6670\u5730\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u8fd0\u52a8\u5458\u5934\u90e8\u5728\u649e\u51fb\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u4e3a\u8fd0\u52a8\u635f\u4f24\u9632\u62a4\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u5236\u5b9a\u63d0\u4f9b\u6709\u529b\u4f9d\u636e\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h3 id=\"%E5%9B%9B%E3%80%81%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E6%AF%94%E8%BE%83%E4%B8%8E%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE\" name=\"%E5%9B%9B%E3%80%81%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E6%AF%94%E8%BE%83%E4%B8%8E%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE\">\n   \u56db\u3001\u6a21\u578b\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e0e\u9009\u62e9\u5efa\u8bae<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<h4 id=\"%EF%BC%88%E4%B8%80%EF%BC%89%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E6%AF%94%E8%BE%83\" name=\"%EF%BC%88%E4%B8%80%EF%BC%89%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E6%AF%94%E8%BE%83\">\n   \uff08\u4e00\uff09\u6a21\u578b\u6bd4\u8f83<br \/>\n  <\/h4>\n<ol>\n<li>\n<p>\n     <strong><br \/>\n      \u964d\u566a\u6548\u679c<br \/>\n     <\/strong><br \/>\n     \uff1a\u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6570\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u4e86\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u964d\u566a\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u663e\u8457\u964d\u4f4e RMSE \u5e76\u63d0\u9ad8 SNR\u3002ARIMA \u6a21\u578b\u6b21\u4e4b\uff0c\u5176\u964d\u566a\u6548\u679c\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u6570\u636e\u7c7b\u578b\u548c\u566a\u58f0\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5\u867d\u7136\u964d\u566a\u6548\u679c\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5f31\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u573a\u666f\u4e0b\u4e5f\u80fd\u53d6\u5f97\u8f83\u597d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u548c\u5904\u7406\u901f\u5ea6\u65b9\u9762\u5177\u6709\u4f18\u52bf\u3002\n    <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n     <strong><br \/>\n      \u8ba1\u7b97\u590d\u6742\u5ea6<br \/>\n     <\/strong><br \/>\n     \uff1a\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u6700\u4f4e\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u77ed\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u5b8c\u6210\u6570\u636e\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u5b9e\u65f6\u6216\u8fd1\u5b9e\u65f6\u7684\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u76d1\u6d4b\u573a\u666f\u3002ARIMA \u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u4e2d\u7b49\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u884c\u6a21\u578b\u8bc6\u522b\u3001\u53c2\u6570\u4f30\u8ba1\u7b49\u6b65\u9aa4\uff0c\u5904\u7406\u65f6\u95f4\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u957f\u3002\u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u591a\u5c42\u5206\u89e3\u548c\u9608\u503c\u5904\u7406\u65f6\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u65f6\u95f4\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u52a0\u3002\n    <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n     <strong><br \/>\n      \u9002\u7528\u573a\u666f<br \/>\n     <\/strong><br \/>\n     \uff1a\n    <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        ARIMA \u6a21\u578b<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u5177\u6709\u8f83\u660e\u663e\u7ebf\u6027\u8d8b\u52bf\u548c\u5e73\u7a33\u6027\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u6d4b\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5305\u542b\u590d\u6742\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u7279\u6027\u548c\u5f3a\u566a\u58f0\u5e72\u6270\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5176\u964d\u566a\u6548\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u9650\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u9700\u8981\u5feb\u901f\u6570\u636e\u5904\u7406\u7684\u573a\u666f\uff0c\u5982\u4f53\u80b2\u6bd4\u8d5b\u4e2d\u8fd0\u52a8\u5458\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u7684\u5b9e\u65f6\u76d1\u6d4b\u3002\u5b83\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5e73\u7a33\u6027\u8981\u6c42\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u8f83\u597d\u5730\u9002\u5e94\u6570\u636e\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5904\u7406\u5177\u6709\u590d\u6742\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u548c\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6570\u636e\u65f6\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u5982\u5176\u4ed6\u65b9\u6cd5\u6709\u6548\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       <strong><br \/>\n        \u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362<br \/>\n       <\/strong><br \/>\n       \uff1a\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u975e\u5e73\u7a33\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u6709\u6548\u5730\u5904\u7406\u5177\u6709\u7a81\u53d8\u3001\u77ac\u6001\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u6570\u636e\u3002\u5b83\u5bf9\u566a\u58f0\u7684\u9c81\u68d2\u6027\u5f3a\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u8f83\u597d\u5730\u4fdd\u7559\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u7ec6\u8282\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u7cbe\u5ea6\u8981\u6c42\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u5982\u6c7d\u8f66\u78b0\u649e\u5b89\u5168\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e2d\u7684\u7cbe\u7ec6\u635f\u4f24\u5206\u6790\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h4 id=\"%EF%BC%88%E4%BA%8C%EF%BC%89%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE\" name=\"%EF%BC%88%E4%BA%8C%EF%BC%89%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE\">\n   \uff08\u4e8c\uff09\u9009\u62e9\u5efa\u8bae<br \/>\n  <\/h4>\n<p>\n   \u5728\u9009\u62e9\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u5934\u90e8\u649e\u51fb\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u6d4b\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u964d\u566a\u65f6\uff0c\u5e94\u7efc\u5408\u8003\u8651\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u3001\u964d\u566a\u76ee\u6807\u3001\u8ba1\u7b97\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u5904\u7406\u65f6\u95f4\u7b49\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u56e0\u7d20\uff1a\n  <\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\n<p>\n     <strong><br \/>\n      \u6570\u636e\u7279\u70b9<br \/>\n     <\/strong><br \/>\n     \uff1a\n    <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\n       \u5982\u679c\u6570\u636e\u5177\u6709\u660e\u663e\u7684\u975e\u5e73\u7a33\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u5982\u5b58\u5728\u7a81\u53d8\u3001\u77ac\u6001\u51b2\u51fb\u7b49\uff0c\u5c0f\u6ce2\u53d8\u6362\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u9996\u9009\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\n      <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n       \u5bf9\u4e8e\u5177\u6709\u7ebf\u6027\u8d8b\u52bf\u548c\u5e73\u7a33\u6027\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0cARIMA 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